Rolex

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$343.69

529 gems

Advertised RTP

90.00%

EV $309.32 from 8 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.55%

108 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

12 openings · below min

7 days

78 openings · below min

30 days

89.55%±28.32108 openings

since tracking started

89.55%±28.32108 openings

-0.5%74.0%148.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	12	62.83%±84.9	—	odds
7d	78	87.37%±33.3	—	odds
30d	108	89.55%±28.3	−0.0σ	odds
All	108	89.55%±28.3	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 108 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Butterfly Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	25.0%	$1,203 1,850 gems	97.2%	27	27.0	1.00×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 11	$60.99 93.83 gems	1.8%	7	9.7	0.72×
MAC-10 \| Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$18.25 28.08 gems	0.5%	10	9.7	1.03×
AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$6.21 9.56 gems	0.2%	7	9.7	0.72×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New)weapon · classified	12.0%	$5.23 8.04 gems	0.2%	14	13.0	1.08×
Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	12.0%	$1.37 2.1 gems	0.1%	16	13.0	1.23×
SSG 08 \| Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial	12.0%	$0.85 1.3 gems	0.0%	13	13.0	1.00×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	12.0%	$0.64 0.99 gems	0.0%	14	13.0	1.08×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.