Rolling the Dice
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$64.12
98.65 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $57.71 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.16%
619 openings, odds method
Variance
2.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 619 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 16.6% | $293 451 gems | 84.3% | 99 | 102.8 | 0.96× |
| M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 16.6% | $13.01 20.02 gems | 3.7% | 91 | 102.8 | 0.89× |
| AUG | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified | 16.6% | $11.86 18.24 gems | 3.4% | 103 | 102.8 | 1.00× |
| StatTrak™ FAMAS | Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 16.6% | $11.51 17.7 gems | 3.3% | 98 | 102.8 | 0.95× |
| MAC-10 | Indigo (Factory New)weapon · Common | 16.6% | $9.54 14.67 gems | 2.7% | 110 | 102.8 | 1.07× |
| M4A4 | Spider Lily (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 17.0% | $8.53 13.12 gems | 2.5% | 118 | 105.2 | 1.12× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
AUG | Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classifiedCode: XTRA $500 lb$64.1298.65 gems$11.8618.24 gems0.18x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $64.12 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 33.2%classified 33.2%Common 16.6%restricted 17.0%best hit —