Rudolph
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$24.69
37.98 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $22.21 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
108.80%
661 openings, odds method
Variance
5.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.98% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.35% – 127.26%, 661 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 661 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $329 506 gems | 44.4% | 25 | 19.8 | 1.26× |
| ★ Sport Gloves | Big Game (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $123 190 gems | 16.7% | 23 | 19.8 | 1.16× |
| AK-47 | Panthera onca (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 25 | $80.91 124 gems | 14.6% | 41 | 26.4 | 1.55× |
| M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $26.05 40.08 gems | 11.7% | 68 | 66.1 | 1.03× |
| Dual Berettas | Pyre (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $15.66 24.09 gems | 7.0% | 52 | 66.1 | 0.79× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $9.96 15.32 gems | 4.5% | 63 | 66.1 | 0.95× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec | 10.0% | $1.94 2.98 gems | 0.9% | 69 | 66.1 | 1.04× |
| G3SG1 | Hunter (Factory New)weapon · blue | 50.0% | $0.10 0.15 gems | 0.2% | 320 | 330.5 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec$24.6937.98 gems$1.942.98 gems0.08x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert$24.6937.98 gems$9.9615.32 gems0.40x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $24.69 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 3.0%extraordinary 3.0%#d32ee6 4.0%industrial 20.0%covert 10.0%milspec 10.0%blue 50.0%best hit —