Russian Roullete
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$6.15
9.46 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $5.53 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.66%
2,469 openings, odds method
Variance
3.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
83.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,481 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 16.6% | $31.38 48.27 gems | 94.2% | 386 | 411.8 | 0.94× |
| R8 Revolver | Survivalist (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 16.6% | $0.59 0.9 gems | 1.8% | 409 | 411.8 | 0.99× |
| R8 Revolver | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 16.6% | $0.52 0.8 gems | 1.6% | 424 | 411.8 | 1.03× |
| R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)weapon · blue | 16.6% | $0.41 0.63 gems | 1.2% | 423 | 411.8 | 1.03× |
| R8 Revolver | Junk Yard (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 16.6% | $0.27 0.41 gems | 0.8% | 417 | 411.8 | 1.01× |
| R8 Revolver | Grip (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 17.0% | $0.16 0.25 gems | 0.5% | 422 | 421.8 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert$6.159.46 gems$31.3848.27 gems5.10x
R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)weapon · blueI be that pretty motherfucker$6.159.46 gems$0.410.63 gems0.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $6.15 | 89.96% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 16.6%mil spec 50.2%blue 16.6%Rare 16.6%best hit —