Sacred
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$25.45
39.16 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $22.91 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
109.65%
533 openings, odds method
Variance
4.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 90.00% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.28% – 128.02%, 533 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 537 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $307 473 gems | 26.8% | 13 | 10.7 | 1.21× |
| AUG | Flame Jörmungandr (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 25 | $182 281 gems | 31.8% | 33 | 21.5 | 1.54× |
| MAC-10 | Copper Borre (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 1 in 25 | $67.96 105 gems | 11.9% | 21 | 21.5 | 0.98× |
| M4A1-S | Moss Quartz (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $35.36 54.4 gems | 15.4% | 52 | 53.7 | 0.97× |
| MAG-7 | Chainmail (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $15.39 23.68 gems | 6.7% | 49 | 53.7 | 0.91× |
| SSG 08 | Red Stone (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $7.36 11.32 gems | 3.2% | 49 | 53.7 | 0.91× |
| SG 553 | Barricade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common | 10.0% | $3.30 5.08 gems | 1.4% | 54 | 53.7 | 1.01× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $2.11 3.25 gems | 0.9% | 65 | 53.7 | 1.21× |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $1.38 2.12 gems | 1.2% | 93 | 107.4 | 0.87× |
| MP5-SD | Kitbash (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 20.0% | $0.62 0.96 gems | 0.5% | 108 | 107.4 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedelfanta$25.4539.16 gems$1.382.12 gems0.05x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $25.45 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 6.0%blue 4.0%industrial 20.0%consumer 10.0%Common 10.0%mil spec 10.0%classified 20.0%Mythical 20.0%best hit —