Safari Season
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$10.76
16.55 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $9.68 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
81.39%
6,969 openings, odds method
Variance
23.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 83
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,132 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covertsten 7$10.7616.55 gems$6511,002 gems60.51x
★ Butterfly Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covertk v b a$10.7616.55 gems$6511,002 gems60.51x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $10.76 | 89.99% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%covert knife 2.2%#ffd700 0.4%Covert 0.4%knifes 0.8%rare 1.0%consumer 20.0%industrial 75.0%best hit $651 (60.51x)