Sakura
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$63.73
98.05 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $57.36 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.01%
1,467 openings, odds method
Variance
15.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,479 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $2,287 3,518 gems | 39.9% | 16 | 14.8 | 1.08× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $677 1,041 gems | 23.6% | 31 | 29.6 | 1.05× |
| P90 | Emerald Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $317 487 gems | 11.0% | 34 | 29.6 | 1.15× |
| AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 20 | $125 192 gems | 10.9% | 81 | 74.0 | 1.10× |
| AK-47 | Nouveau Rouge (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $37.89 58.3 gems | 6.6% | 161 | 147.9 | 1.09× |
| Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified | 10.0% | $20.03 30.81 gems | 3.5% | 151 | 147.9 | 1.02× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $9.69 14.9 gems | 3.4% | 269 | 295.8 | 0.91× |
| Galil AR | Crimson Tsunami (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical | 20.0% | $2.35 3.61 gems | 0.8% | 286 | 295.8 | 0.97× |
| MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 30.0% | $0.61 0.94 gems | 0.3% | 450 | 443.7 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covertHydrarewards.com$63.7398.05 gems$2,2873,518 gems35.88x
AUG | Akihabara Accept (Factory New)weapon · covertVarsityGambles$63.7398.05 gems$2,2873,518 gems35.88x
Latest dropsnewest first
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Factory New)weapon · LegendaryFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$63.7398.05 gems$125192 gems1.96x
Desert Eagle | Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified$63.7398.05 gems$20.0330.81 gems0.31x
M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedich hab kleine d$63.7398.05 gems$9.6914.9 gems0.15x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $63.73 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 3.0%classified 22.0%Legendary 15.0%Classified 10.0%Mythical 20.0%violet 30.0%best hit $2,287 (35.88x)