Santa's Bag
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$56.54
86.99 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $50.88 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.48%
403 openings, odds method
Variance
8.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 403 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $914 1,407 gems | 53.9% | 10 | 12.1 | 0.83× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold | 1 in 17 | $215 331 gems | 25.4% | 24 | 24.2 | 0.99× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 17 | $87.26 134 gems | 10.3% | 16 | 24.2 | 0.66× |
| Desert Eagle | Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 17 | $57.84 88.98 gems | 6.8% | 25 | 24.2 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $7.83 12.04 gems | 1.5% | 42 | 40.3 | 1.04× |
| M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $6.11 9.4 gems | 1.2% | 36 | 40.3 | 0.89× |
| MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $1.82 2.8 gems | 0.4% | 40 | 40.3 | 0.99× |
| MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violet | 49.0% | $0.51 0.79 gems | 0.5% | 210 | 197.5 | 1.06× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 00:07 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryefe$56.5486.99 gems$9141,407 gems16.17x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$56.5486.99 gems$9141,407 gems16.17x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$56.5486.99 gems$9141,407 gems16.17x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$56.5486.99 gems$9141,407 gems16.17x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarymakethemCRY$56.5486.99 gems$9141,407 gems16.17x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarySmiling Grizzly$56.5486.99 gems$9141,407 gems16.17x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$56.5486.99 gems$9141,407 gems16.17x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$56.5486.99 gems$9141,407 gems16.17x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinarykfc32$56.5486.99 gems$9141,407 gems16.17x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$56.5486.99 gems$9141,407 gems16.17x
Latest dropsnewest first
MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested)weapon · violethttps://kick.com/waxumfriendly$56.5486.99 gems$0.510.79 gems0.01x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $56.54 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 3.0%gold 6.0%covert 16.0%restricted 6.0%classified 10.0%Legendary 10.0%violet 49.0%best hit $914 (16.17x)