Santa's Snipers & Shooters
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$477.72
735 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $429.94 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.14%
278 openings, odds method
Variance
10.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 278 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary | 1 in 100 | $10.8K 16,610 gems | 25.1% | 3 | 2.8 | 1.08× |
| AWP | Gungnir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $7,384 11,360 gems | 34.3% | 6 | 5.6 | 1.08× |
| AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 33 | $3,145 4,839 gems | 21.9% | 5 | 8.3 | 0.60× |
| AWP | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $758 1,166 gems | 7.1% | 9 | 11.1 | 0.81× |
| AK-47 | X-Ray (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $363 558 gems | 4.2% | 18 | 13.9 | 1.29× |
| AWP | BOOM (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $99.22 153 gems | 3.5% | 40 | 41.7 | 0.96× |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $48.05 73.93 gems | 1.7% | 40 | 41.7 | 0.96× |
| AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $27.35 42.08 gems | 1.0% | 48 | 41.7 | 1.15× |
| AK-47 | Green Laminate (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 20.0% | $17.49 26.91 gems | 0.8% | 52 | 55.6 | 0.94× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified | 20.0% | $8.86 13.63 gems | 0.4% | 57 | 55.6 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $478 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 1.0%covert 44.0%classified 15.0%blue 20.0%Classified 20.0%best hit $10.8K (22.60x)