Sapphire Dream
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.96
47.63 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $27.86 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.06%
2,359 openings, odds method
Variance
93.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 333
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,399 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New)knife · Covert | 1 in 1,000 | $7,703 11,851 gems | 27.6% | 1 | 2.4 | 0.42× |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 500 | $3,160 4,861 gems | 22.7% | 8 | 4.8 | 1.67× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 500 | $2,382 3,664 gems | 17.1% | 2 | 4.8 | 0.42× |
| Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 19.5% | $26.31 40.48 gems | 18.4% | 501 | 467.8 | 1.07× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $8.44 12.99 gems | 6.1% | 476 | 479.8 | 0.99× |
| M4A1-S | Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 30.0% | $4.16 6.4 gems | 4.5% | 716 | 719.7 | 0.99× |
| USP-S | Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $3.36 5.17 gems | 3.6% | 695 | 719.7 | 0.97× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$30.9647.63 gems$26.3140.48 gems0.85x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified⭕⃤ katal #brokemouse$30.9647.63 gems$26.3140.48 gems0.85x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$30.9647.63 gems$26.3140.48 gems0.85x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$30.9647.63 gems$26.3140.48 gems0.85x
Desert Eagle | Cobalt Disruption (Field-Tested)weapon · classified$30.9647.63 gems$26.3140.48 gems0.85x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $30.96 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 0.1%sunny 0.4%classified 49.5%industrial 20.0%mil spec 30.0%best hit $7,703 (248.8x)