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A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.64
5.6 gems
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $3.27 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.12%
6,298 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,593 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 100 | $67.78 104 gems | 20.7% | 53 | 65.9 | 0.80× |
| UMP-45 | Fallout Warning (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 1 in 100 | $47.83 73.58 gems | 14.6% | 72 | 65.9 | 1.09× |
| MAC-10 | Gold Brick (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $33.55 51.62 gems | 10.2% | 55 | 65.9 | 0.83× |
| P250 | Splash (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $17.03 26.2 gems | 5.2% | 67 | 65.9 | 1.02× |
| R8 Revolver | Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $7.55 11.62 gems | 13.8% | 374 | 395.6 | 0.95× |
| MP9 | Setting Sun (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $4.71 7.24 gems | 14.4% | 642 | 659.3 | 0.97× |
| Tec-9 | Bamboo Forest (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 10.0% | $3.59 5.52 gems | 11.0% | 664 | 659.3 | 1.01× |
| Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $1.59 2.45 gems | 4.9% | 688 | 659.3 | 1.04× |
| SSG 08 | Acid Fade (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $0.47 0.72 gems | 1.4% | 674 | 659.3 | 1.02× |
| USP-S | Night Ops (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 50.0% | $0.25 0.38 gems | 3.8% | 3,304 | 3296.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.64 | 89.94% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.0%industrial 1.0%restricted 2.0%mil spec 70.0%consumer 10.0%Mythical 10.0%best hit —