Schrodinger Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.07
24.72 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $14.46 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.33%
3,533 openings, odds method
Variance
39.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,589 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Negev | Mjölnir (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $1,901 2,925 gems | 32.9% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.23× |
| MAG-7 | Cinquedea (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 400 | $475 731 gems | 8.2% | 9 | 9.0 | 1.00× |
| CZ75-Auto | Chalice (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 200 | $326 502 gems | 11.3% | 17 | 17.9 | 0.95× |
| PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 200 | $168 259 gems | 5.8% | 10 | 17.9 | 0.56× |
| Sawed-Off | Copper (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 67 | $81.52 125 gems | 8.5% | 58 | 53.8 | 1.08× |
| Galil AR | Rainbow Spoon (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 50 | $50.65 77.92 gems | 7.0% | 78 | 71.8 | 1.09× |
| P90 | Tiger Pit (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 1 in 20 | $23.02 35.42 gems | 8.0% | 175 | 179.5 | 0.98× |
| SG 553 | Barricade (Factory New)weapon · Common | 10.0% | $10.04 15.45 gems | 6.9% | 357 | 358.9 | 0.99× |
| P250 | Contamination (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon | 80.0% | $2.07 3.18 gems | 11.4% | 2,874 | 2871.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $16.07 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 0.5%restricted 0.5%mil spec 2.0%rare 2.0%Rare 5.0%Common 10.0%Uncommon 80.0%best hit $1,901 (118.3x)