SciFi
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$212.03
326 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $190.82 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.49%
82 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 82 openings and 8.2 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 94 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 10.0% | $1,170 1,800 gems | 61.3% | 5 | 9.4 | 0.53× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $466 716 gems | 24.4% | 14 | 9.4 | 1.49× |
| StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $101 156 gems | 5.3% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.74× |
| StatTrak™ USP-S | Neo-Noir (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $60.70 93.39 gems | 3.2% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | In Living Color (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 10.0% | $44.52 68.49 gems | 2.3% | 12 | 9.4 | 1.28× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $29.46 45.32 gems | 1.5% | 8 | 9.4 | 0.85× |
| StatTrak™ MP7 | Just Smile (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $16.39 25.22 gems | 0.9% | 7 | 9.4 | 0.74× |
| Sticker | Dystopian Gaze (Lenticular)sticker · Ancient | 10.0% | $11.90 18.31 gems | 0.6% | 11 | 9.4 | 1.17× |
| Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $4.20 6.46 gems | 0.4% | 22 | 18.8 | 1.17× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$212326 gems$1,1701,800 gems5.52x
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$212326 gems$1,1701,800 gems5.52x
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$212326 gems$1,1701,800 gems5.52x
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$212326 gems$1,1701,800 gems5.52x
StatTrak™ AWP | Chrome Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Covert$212326 gems$1,1701,800 gems5.52x
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Head Shot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertBottavious$212326 gems$101156 gems0.48x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $212 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 20.0%covert 40.0%restricted 10.0%Ancient 10.0%classified 20.0%best hit $1,170 (5.52x)