Scorched Earth
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$200.82
309 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $180.74 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.04%
1,114 openings, odds method
Variance
1.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,124 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $647 995 gems | 35.8% | 123 | 112.4 | 1.09× |
| ★ Karambit | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $495 761 gems | 27.4% | 112 | 112.4 | 1.00× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · epic | 10.0% | $449 691 gems | 24.9% | 127 | 112.4 | 1.13× |
| ★ Nomad Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 10.0% | $207 318 gems | 11.4% | 101 | 112.4 | 0.90× |
| UMP-45 | Scorched (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $1.70 2.62 gems | 0.2% | 222 | 224.8 | 0.99× |
| MP7 | Scorched (Factory New)weapon · SMGs | 20.0% | $1.70 2.61 gems | 0.2% | 203 | 224.8 | 0.90× |
| P90 | Scorched (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $1.49 2.3 gems | 0.2% | 236 | 224.8 | 1.05× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covertArmands Miesnieks$201309 gems$647995 gems3.22x
★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covertArmands Miesnieks$201309 gems$647995 gems3.22x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $201 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%covert knife 20.0%epic 10.0%consumer 40.0%SMGs 20.0%best hit $647 (3.22x)