Scout
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.26
6.56 gems
Advertised RTP
89.94%
EV $3.83 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.68%
7,722 openings, odds method
Variance
13.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
88.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,867 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SSG 08 | Sea Calico (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $150 231 gems | 39.1% | 75 | 78.7 | 0.95× |
| SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $31.21 48.02 gems | 16.3% | 161 | 157.3 | 1.02× |
| SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 25 | $13.85 21.3 gems | 14.4% | 279 | 314.7 | 0.89× |
| SSG 08 | Big Iron (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $13.66 21.01 gems | 17.8% | 359 | 393.3 | 0.91× |
| SSG 08 | Parallax (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 20 | $2.94 4.52 gems | 3.8% | 397 | 393.3 | 1.01× |
| SSG 08 | Ghost Crusader (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $1.64 2.53 gems | 2.1% | 364 | 393.3 | 0.93× |
| SSG 08 | Necropos (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 30.0% | $0.59 0.91 gems | 4.6% | 2,444 | 2360.1 | 1.04× |
| SSG 08 | Blue Spruce (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 48.0% | $0.14 0.22 gems | 1.8% | 3,788 | 3776.2 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.26 | 89.94% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 6.0%classified 7.0%covert 4.0%#8847ff 5.0%#4b69ff 30.0%consumer 48.0%best hit —