Scrunchy
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$15.67
24.1 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $14.10 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.22%
4,408 openings, odds method
Variance
16.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,511 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · Emerald | 1 in 2,000 | $2,219 3,414 gems | 7.9% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · Emerald | 1 in 500 | $539 830 gems | 7.7% | 11 | 9.0 | 1.22× |
| AK-47 | Hydroponic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 1 in 333 | $337 518 gems | 7.2% | 14 | 13.5 | 1.03× |
| Souvenir Galil AR | Cerberus (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $278 428 gems | 19.7% | 48 | 45.1 | 1.06× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $58.07 89.34 gems | 4.1% | 38 | 45.1 | 0.84× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 13.0% | $23.07 35.49 gems | 21.3% | 583 | 586.4 | 0.99× |
| Galil AR | Cerberus (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 14.1% | $22.75 35 gems | 22.7% | 680 | 633.8 | 1.07× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $8.76 13.47 gems | 6.2% | 431 | 451.1 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | Drug War Veteransticker · High Grade | 60.4% | $0.77 1.19 gems | 3.3% | 2,705 | 2724.7 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · EmeraldJB$15.6724.1 gems$2,2193,414 gems141.7x
★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald)knife · Emeraldmetrostabins$15.6724.1 gems$539830 gems34.44x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $15.67 | 89.99% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.3%classified 23.3%restricted 15.1%covert 1.0%High Grade 60.4%best hit $2,219 (141.7x)