Sell Out
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$30.30
46.62 gems
Advertised RTP
89.19%
EV $27.03 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.85%
1,984 openings, odds method
Variance
14.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,042 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $1,535 2,361 gems | 11.4% | 3 | 4.1 | 0.73× |
| AWP | Medusa (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $1,223 1,882 gems | 13.6% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.49× |
| ★ Karambit | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 1 in 200 | $736 1,132 gems | 13.6% | 8 | 10.2 | 0.78× |
| M4A1-S | Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $279 430 gems | 10.3% | 19 | 20.4 | 0.93× |
| AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $143 220 gems | 10.6% | 44 | 40.8 | 1.08× |
| AK-47 | Vulcan (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 50 | $125 192 gems | 9.3% | 46 | 40.8 | 1.13× |
| M4A1-S | Master Piece (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $81.24 125 gems | 12.0% | 74 | 81.7 | 0.91× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $62.78 96.59 gems | 11.6% | 95 | 102.1 | 0.93× |
| SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $35.45 54.54 gems | 6.6% | 114 | 102.1 | 1.12× |
| Sticker | Guttedsticker · high | 80.0% | $0.37 0.57 gems | 1.1% | 1,636 | 1633.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.19%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $30.30 | 89.19% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%restricted 1.0%classified 4.0%high 80.0%best hit $1,535 (50.65x)