Serotonin Boost
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$86.64
133 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $77.97 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
77.87%
177 openings, odds method
Variance
7.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 183 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Gungnir (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 500 | $4,712 7,250 gems | 12.1% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 333 | $777 1,195 gems | 3.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 40 | $318 489 gems | 10.2% | 0 | 4.6 | 0.00× |
| ★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 14 | $295 454 gems | 26.5% | 14 | 12.8 | 1.09× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $199 306 gems | 25.5% | 22 | 18.3 | 1.20× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 10.0% | $87.93 135 gems | 11.3% | 23 | 18.3 | 1.26× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 10.0% | $37.25 57.31 gems | 4.8% | 19 | 18.3 | 1.04× |
| M4A1-S | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $15.41 23.7 gems | 3.0% | 18 | 27.4 | 0.66× |
| FAMAS | Commemoration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $9.72 14.95 gems | 1.9% | 29 | 27.4 | 1.06× |
| StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert | 30.0% | $4.93 7.58 gems | 1.9% | 58 | 54.9 | 1.06× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert$86.64133 gems$37.2557.31 gems0.43x
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertLost Panda$86.64133 gems$37.2557.31 gems0.43x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $86.64 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 82.5%rare 2.5%restricted 15.0%best hit —