Setting Sun
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8.48
13.05 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $7.63 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.13%
1,162 openings, odds method
Variance
2.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,169 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert | 1 in 50 | $54.78 84.27 gems | 14.4% | 24 | 23.4 | 1.03× |
| Souvenir MP9 | Setting Sun (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec | 1 in 13 | $37.84 58.21 gems | 39.7% | 94 | 93.5 | 1.01× |
| AWP | Sun in Leo (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $13.24 20.37 gems | 17.3% | 102 | 116.9 | 0.87× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $9.51 14.63 gems | 24.9% | 218 | 233.8 | 0.93× |
| StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 60.0% | $0.47 0.73 gems | 3.7% | 731 | 701.4 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.4813.05 gems$0.470.73 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.4813.05 gems$0.470.73 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.4813.05 gems$0.470.73 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.4813.05 gems$0.470.73 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.4813.05 gems$0.470.73 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$8.4813.05 gems$0.470.73 gems0.06x
StatTrak™ Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeSandoB. #YNWA$8.4813.05 gems$0.470.73 gems0.06x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8.48 | 89.99% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedCovert 2.0%mil spec 8.0%industrial 10.0%covert 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 60.0%best hit —