Seven Seas
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$1,117.36
1,719 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $1,005.62 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.53%
105 openings, odds method
Variance
6.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 111 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire | 10.0% | $9,315 14,331 gems | 92.6% | 10 | 11.1 | 0.90× |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 20 | $829 1,276 gems | 4.1% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.08× |
| ★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 20 | $382 588 gems | 1.9% | 6 | 5.5 | 1.08× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $43.16 66.4 gems | 0.6% | 20 | 16.6 | 1.20× |
| USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 15.0% | $41.61 64.01 gems | 0.6% | 15 | 16.6 | 0.90× |
| FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $3.73 5.74 gems | 0.1% | 11 | 16.6 | 0.66× |
| SSG 08 | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 35.0% | $0.83 1.27 gems | 0.0% | 43 | 38.9 | 1.11× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphireHydrarewards.com$1,1171,719 gems$9,31514,331 gems8.34x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,1171,719 gems$9,31514,331 gems8.34x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,1171,719 gems$9,31514,331 gems8.34x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphirexCK97x On Kick | CODE : CK97$1,1171,719 gems$9,31514,331 gems8.34x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · SapphirexCK97x On Kick | CODE : CK97$1,1171,719 gems$9,31514,331 gems8.34x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,1171,719 gems$9,31514,331 gems8.34x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,1171,719 gems$9,31514,331 gems8.34x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,1171,719 gems$9,31514,331 gems8.34x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,1171,719 gems$9,31514,331 gems8.34x
★ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire)knife · covert · Sapphire$1,1171,719 gems$9,31514,331 gems8.34x
Latest dropsnewest first
FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specHydrarewards.com$1,1171,719 gems$3.735.74 gems0.00x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $1,117 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 15.0%sunny 5.0%restricted 30.0%mil spec 50.0%best hit $9,315 (8.34x)