Shadow Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.65
4.07 gems
Advertised RTP
89.85%
EV $2.38 from 29 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.66%
5,863 openings, odds method
Variance
15.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 51
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.9%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.85% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (91.68% – 111.64%, 5,863 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values29 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,896 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffElizabeth$2.654.07 gems$0.921.42 gems0.35x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.85%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.65 | 89.85% | 29 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.8%covert knife 0.0%rare 0.0%other 0.0%classified 3.2%restricted 8.0%violet 4.0%Mythical 4.0%#4b69ff 11.4%blue 11.4%Rare 22.8%mil spec 34.3%best hit $263 (99.26x)