Shadows
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$239.06
368 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $215.15 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
113.84%
32 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
40.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 32 openings and 12.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 32 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · covert | 40.0% | $472 727 gems | 87.8% | 17 | 12.8 | 1.33× |
| AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $120 185 gems | 5.6% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| AK-47 | Black Laminate (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $102 157 gems | 4.7% | 2 | 3.2 | 0.63× |
| Galil AR | Phoenix Blacklight (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $29.58 45.51 gems | 1.4% | 3 | 3.2 | 0.94× |
| USP-S | Black Lotus (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 30.0% | $3.27 5.03 gems | 0.5% | 7 | 9.6 | 0.73× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $239 | 90.00% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 40.0%classified 10.0%mil spec 40.0%restricted 10.0%best hit —