Sharp Odds
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$28.56
43.94 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $25.70 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
70.18%
520 openings, odds method
Variance
9.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 33
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 520 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $636 978 gems | 24.7% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.58× |
| ★ Karambit | Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $401 617 gems | 31.2% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| ★ Bayonet | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $172 265 gems | 13.4% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife | 1 in 20 | $44.30 68.16 gems | 8.6% | 21 | 26.0 | 0.81× |
| AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $24.69 37.99 gems | 4.8% | 22 | 26.0 | 0.85× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $16.05 24.69 gems | 3.1% | 27 | 26.0 | 1.04× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 1 in 20 | $10.61 16.32 gems | 2.1% | 27 | 26.0 | 1.04× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $7.95 12.23 gems | 4.6% | 94 | 78.0 | 1.21× |
| UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 30.0% | $4.55 7 gems | 5.3% | 157 | 156.0 | 1.01× |
| Desert Eagle | Mint Fan (Factory New)weapon · blue | 30.0% | $1.79 2.75 gems | 2.1% | 153 | 156.0 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $28.56 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 5.0%covert knife 5.0%classified 10.0%pink 35.0%mil spec 15.0%blue 30.0%best hit $636 (22.27x)