Shattered Web Case

A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$3.97
6.11 gems
Advertised RTP
89.95%
EV $3.57 from 69 items
Observed RTP, 30d
97.41%
6,651 openings, odds method
Variance
33.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 51
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.7%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
124.08%±35.041,047 openings
7 days
98.13%±14.566,060 openings
30 days
97.41%±13.906,651 openings
since tracking started
97.41%±13.906,651 openings
83.0%121.5%160.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,047124.08%±35.0+1.9σodds
7d6,06098.13%±14.6+1.1σodds
30d6,65197.41%±13.9+1.1σodds
All6,65197.41%±13.9+1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,713 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$1,559 2,399 gems2.2%00.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$934 1,436 gems1.3%00.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$891 1,370 gems1.2%00.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$806 1,240 gems1.1%00.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$560 862 gems0.8%00.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 20,000$546 841 gems0.8%10.3—
★ Survival Knife | Crimson Web (Factory New)knife · legendary1 in 20,000$534 821 gems0.7%00.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$499 768 gems0.7%10.3—
★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covert1 in 20,000$427 657 gems0.6%10.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$422 649 gems0.6%00.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · Covert1 in 20,000$383 589 gems0.5%00.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · Immortal1 in 20,000$372 573 gems0.5%20.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$335 516 gems0.5%00.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$305 470 gems0.4%00.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$282 435 gems0.4%00.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$274 421 gems0.4%10.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$272 418 gems0.4%10.3—
★ Nomad Knifeknife · covert1 in 20,000$260 400 gems0.4%00.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$245 378 gems0.3%10.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$237 365 gems0.3%10.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 20,000$232 356 gems0.3%00.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$223 344 gems0.3%10.3—
★ Survival Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$216 332 gems0.3%00.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 20,000$195 300 gems0.3%10.3—
AWP | Containment Breach (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$191 294 gems17.1%2821.51.30×
★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 20,000$190 292 gems0.3%10.3—
★ Skeleton Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$188 289 gems0.3%00.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$183 282 gems0.3%00.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 20,000$182 281 gems0.3%00.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$162 250 gems0.2%10.3—
★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$160 246 gems0.2%10.3—
★ Survival Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$146 225 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$144 222 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$144 222 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Survival Knife | Night Stripe (Factory New)knife · knifes1 in 20,000$136 208 gems0.2%10.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$132 204 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$132 204 gems0.2%20.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$123 189 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$122 187 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Nomad Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$118 182 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Survival Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$117 180 gems0.2%00.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$107 164 gems0.1%00.3—
★ Survival Knifeknife · Immortal1 in 20,000$106 163 gems0.1%00.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 20,000$106 163 gems0.1%10.3—
★ Paracord Knifeknife · covert1 in 20,000$105 161 gems0.1%30.3—
★ Survival Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$103 158 gems0.1%00.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$100 154 gems0.1%00.3—
★ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 20,000$97.19 150 gems0.1%00.3—
★ Survival Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$93.55 144 gems0.1%00.3—
★ Survival Knife | Forest DDPAT (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 20,000$91.76 141 gems0.1%10.3—
★ Survival Knife | Scorched (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$91.16 140 gems0.1%00.3—
★ Paracord Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$85.32 131 gems0.1%00.3—
★ Survival Knife | Safari Mesh (Factory New)knife · covert knife1 in 20,000$73.91 114 gems0.1%00.3—
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 94$37.11 57.09 gems11.1%6671.60.92×
MAC-10 | Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 313$32.81 50.48 gems2.9%2421.51.12×
Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 94$26.23 40.36 gems7.8%8971.61.24×
SG 553 | Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee61 in 94$19.53 30.04 gems5.8%7671.61.06×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$5.64 8.67 gems5.0%233214.51.09×
P2000 | Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$3.50 5.38 gems3.1%211214.50.98×
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$2.96 4.55 gems2.6%209214.50.97×
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$2.94 4.52 gems2.6%231214.51.08×
MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 31$2.80 4.3 gems2.5%203214.50.95×
Dual Berettas | Balance (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$1.83 2.82 gems5.9%751766.40.98×
R8 Revolver | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.82 1.26 gems2.6%715766.40.93×
G3SG1 | Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.78 1.2 gems2.5%805766.41.05×
M249 | Warbird (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.68 1.04 gems2.2%737766.40.96×
MP5-SD | Acid Wash (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.63 0.97 gems2.0%765766.41.00×
SCAR-20 | Torn (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.59 0.9 gems1.9%786766.41.03×
Nova | Plume (Factory New)weapon · mil spec11.4%$0.59 0.9 gems1.9%762766.60.99×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold$3.976.11 gems$546841 gems137.6x
★ Skeleton Knife | Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert$3.976.11 gems$499768 gems125.6x
★ Skeleton Knifeknife · covert$3.976.11 gems$427657 gems107.5x
★ Skeleton Knife | Urban Masked (Factory New)knife · epic$3.976.11 gems$274421 gems68.91x
★ Nomad Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New)knife · covert$3.976.11 gems$272418 gems68.40x
★ Nomad Knife | Stained (Factory New)knife · covert$3.976.11 gems$223344 gems56.26x

Latest dropsnewest first

SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified$3.976.11 gems$37.1157.09 gems9.34x
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.976.11 gems$5.648.67 gems1.42x
Nova | Plume (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.976.11 gems$0.590.9 gems0.15x
PP-Bizon | Embargo (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.976.11 gems$2.964.55 gems0.74x
MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.976.11 gems$2.804.3 gems0.70x
R8 Revolver | Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec$3.976.11 gems$0.821.26 gems0.21x
MP7 | Neon Ply (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.976.11 gems$2.804.3 gems0.70x
AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted$3.976.11 gems$2.944.52 gems0.74x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.95%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$3.9789.95%69
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedlegendary 0.0%Immortal 0.0%epic 0.0%gold 0.0%covert 0.7%Covert 0.0%covert knife 0.1%knifes 0.0%rare 0.0%classified 2.1%#d32ee6 1.1%restricted 16.0%mil spec 79.9%best hit $546 (137.6x)