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Shiny Marble

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price
$27.76
42.7 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $24.98 from 17 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.47%
2,674 openings, odds method
Variance
26.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 78
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
270 openings · below min
7 days
96.90%±21.612,137 openings
30 days
93.47%±19.322,674 openings
since tracking started
93.47%±19.322,674 openings
24.5%86.0%147.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h27085.81%±60.8—odds
7d2,13796.90%±21.6+0.6σodds
30d2,67493.47%±19.3+0.4σodds
All2,67493.47%±19.3+0.4σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values17 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,738 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary1 in 1,000$1,989 3,061 gems8.0%32.71.10×
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 667$1,659 2,553 gems10.0%64.11.46×
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 500$1,336 2,055 gems10.7%95.51.64×
★ M9 Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 294$994 1,529 gems13.5%69.30.64×
★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic1 in 200$615 946 gems12.3%1313.70.95×
★ Skeleton Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 200$538 827 gems10.8%1013.70.73×
★ Bayonet | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$395 608 gems7.9%1513.71.10×
★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert1 in 200$340 523 gems6.8%1513.71.10×
★ Nomad Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 200$330 507 gems6.6%913.70.66×
★ Paracord Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare1 in 118$157 241 gems5.3%2123.30.90×
★ Survival Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold1 in 116$145 223 gems5.0%2323.50.98×
Sticker | Gold Web (Foil)sticker · #d32ce610.0%$2.07 3.19 gems0.8%290273.81.06×
Sticker | Monte (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · exotic10.0%$1.37 2.1 gems0.5%235273.80.86×
Sticker | Kimberlysticker · Rare10.0%$1.00 1.54 gems0.4%258273.80.94×
Sticker | Red Shades (Foil)sticker · #d32ce620.0%$0.64 0.98 gems0.5%562547.61.03×
Sticker | Zeusception (Holo)sticker · Mythical20.0%$0.57 0.87 gems0.5%578547.61.06×
Sticker | Kawaii Eyes (Glitter)sticker · #8847ff25.0%$0.41 0.63 gems0.4%685684.51.00×
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$27.7642.7 gems$1,9893,061 gems71.68x
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryBolpyFR$27.7642.7 gems$1,9893,061 gems71.68x
★ Specialist Gloves | Marble Fade (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$27.7642.7 gems$1,9893,061 gems71.68x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$27.7642.7 gems$1,6592,553 gems59.78x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$27.7642.7 gems$1,6592,553 gems59.78x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$27.7642.7 gems$1,6592,553 gems59.78x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertPomps$27.7642.7 gems$1,6592,553 gems59.78x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$27.7642.7 gems$1,6592,553 gems59.78x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$27.7642.7 gems$1,6592,553 gems59.78x
★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$27.7642.7 gems$1,3362,055 gems48.12x

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
Sticker | Zeusception (Holo)sticker · Mythical$27.7642.7 gems$0.570.87 gems0.02x
Sticker | Zeusception (Holo)sticker · Mythical$27.7642.7 gems$0.570.87 gems0.02x
Sticker | Red Shades (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6$27.7642.7 gems$0.640.98 gems0.02x
★ Stiletto Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert$27.7642.7 gems$340523 gems12.25x
Sticker | Red Shades (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6$27.7642.7 gems$0.640.98 gems0.02x
Sticker | Kawaii Eyes (Glitter)sticker · #8847ff☦︎Theta$27.7642.7 gems$0.410.63 gems0.01x
Sticker | Zeusception (Holo)sticker · Mythical$27.7642.7 gems$0.570.87 gems0.02x
Sticker | Monte (Holo) | Paris 2023sticker · exotic$27.7642.7 gems$1.372.1 gems0.05x
★ Talon Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · epic$27.7642.7 gems$615946 gems22.15x
Sticker | Red Shades (Foil)sticker · #d32ce6$27.7642.7 gems$0.640.98 gems0.02x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
3 Nov, 02:04 UTC$27.7690.00%17
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 1.7%epic 0.5%gold 1.9%rare 0.9%#d32ce6 30.0%exotic 10.0%Rare 10.0%Mythical 20.0%#8847ff 25.0%best hit $1,989 (71.68x)