Shocked
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$4.11
6.32 gems
Advertised RTP
89.87%
EV $3.69 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
91.07%
3,367 openings, odds method
Variance
3.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
11.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
79.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,367 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zeus x27 | Dragon Snore (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 29 | $42.69 65.68 gems | 40.5% | 123 | 117.8 | 1.04× |
| Zeus x27 | Charged Up (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 1 in 13 | $10.98 16.89 gems | 22.3% | 247 | 252.5 | 0.98× |
| Zeus x27 | Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $6.42 9.87 gems | 17.4% | 334 | 336.7 | 0.99× |
| Zeus x27 | Tosai (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 15.0% | $2.65 4.08 gems | 10.8% | 522 | 505.0 | 1.03× |
| Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $1.35 2.07 gems | 7.3% | 658 | 673.4 | 0.98× |
| Zeus x27 | Swamp DDPAT (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 44.0% | $0.15 0.23 gems | 1.8% | 1,483 | 1481.5 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 12 Nov, 06:20 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $4.11 | 89.87% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 3.5%#8847ff 7.5%Legendary 10.0%Mythical 15.0%industrial 20.0%consumer 44.0%best hit —