Shockwave
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$47.36
72.86 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $42.62 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.49%
119 openings, odds method
Variance
1.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 119 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M4A1-S | Vaporwave (Factory New)weapon · epic | 10.0% | $208 321 gems | 48.9% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.92× |
| AK-47 | The Outsiders (Factory New)weapon · rare | 10.0% | $76.98 118 gems | 18.1% | 14 | 11.9 | 1.18× |
| M4A1-S | Electrum (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 10.0% | $47.28 72.74 gems | 11.1% | 17 | 11.9 | 1.43× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $31.66 48.7 gems | 7.4% | 15 | 11.9 | 1.26× |
| AWP | Electric Hive (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $24.74 38.06 gems | 5.8% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.92× |
| M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 10.0% | $14.96 23.01 gems | 3.5% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.92× |
| Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $11.60 17.85 gems | 2.7% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.92× |
| Dual Berettas | Urban Shock (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $6.84 10.52 gems | 1.6% | 11 | 11.9 | 0.92× |
| Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 10.0% | $3.50 5.38 gems | 0.8% | 10 | 11.9 | 0.84× |
| Zeus x27 | Electric Blue (Factory New)weapon · uncommon | 10.0% | $0.31 0.48 gems | 0.1% | 8 | 11.9 | 0.67× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Galil AR | Sky Mandala (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$47.3672.86 gems$3.505.38 gems0.07x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $47.36 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedepic 10.0%rare 10.0%Mythical 10.0%covert 10.0%classified 10.0%#8847ff 10.0%restricted 20.0%#4b69ff 10.0%uncommon 10.0%best hit —