Siege
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.84
21.29 gems
Advertised RTP
89.97%
EV $12.45 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.98%
1,494 openings, odds method
Variance
6.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,528 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Hand Cannon (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $224 344 gems | 35.9% | 28 | 30.6 | 0.92× |
| StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 1 in 25 | $68.06 105 gems | 21.9% | 57 | 61.1 | 0.93× |
| AK-47 | Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $38.47 59.18 gems | 18.5% | 94 | 91.7 | 1.03× |
| P2000 | Fire Elemental (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $17.06 26.25 gems | 11.0% | 104 | 122.2 | 0.85× |
| Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $4.71 7.25 gems | 3.8% | 151 | 152.8 | 0.99× |
| MP7 | Nemesis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $3.41 5.24 gems | 5.5% | 308 | 305.6 | 1.01× |
| Dual Berettas | Briar (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $1.65 2.54 gems | 2.7% | 335 | 305.6 | 1.10× |
| P250 | Iron Clad (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 30.0% | $0.33 0.51 gems | 0.8% | 451 | 458.4 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Desolate Space (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedwarrior$13.8421.29 gems$68.06105 gems4.92x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.97%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.84 | 89.97% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 12.0%classified 24.0%covert 14.0%consumer 20.0%Mil Spec Grade 30.0%best hit —