Silk Road
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.38
20.58 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $12.04 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
86.38%
1,655 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 20
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,659 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6 | 1 in 100 | $155 239 gems | 12.9% | 16 | 16.6 | 0.96× |
| ★ Navaja Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 25 | $112 173 gems | 37.4% | 57 | 66.4 | 0.86× |
| AUG | Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $26.95 41.46 gems | 11.2% | 79 | 82.9 | 0.95× |
| UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $26.01 40.02 gems | 21.6% | 189 | 165.9 | 1.14× |
| USP-S | Pathfinder (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 17.0% | $7.62 11.72 gems | 10.8% | 274 | 282.0 | 0.97× |
| AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert | 17.0% | $4.07 6.26 gems | 5.7% | 262 | 282.0 | 0.93× |
| AWP | Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 22.0% | $0.16 0.24 gems | 0.3% | 377 | 365.0 | 1.03× |
| PP-Bizon | Sand Dashed (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 24.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.1% | 405 | 398.2 | 1.02× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.38 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#d32ee6 1.0%covert 21.0%classified 5.0%violet 10.0%industrial 39.0%consumer 24.0%best hit —