Singe
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$16.85
25.92 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $15.16 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
87.33%
5,137 openings, odds method
Variance
14.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 5,187 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · rare | 1 in 50 | $406 625 gems | 53.6% | 98 | 103.7 | 0.94× |
| XM1014 | Blaze Orange (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $172 265 gems | 34.1% | 157 | 155.6 | 1.01× |
| Nova | Blaze Orange (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 20 | $18.53 28.5 gems | 6.1% | 277 | 259.4 | 1.07× |
| UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 13 | $8.98 13.82 gems | 4.4% | 347 | 389.0 | 0.89× |
| R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · blue | 10.0% | $1.19 1.83 gems | 0.8% | 550 | 518.7 | 1.06× |
| Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $0.28 0.43 gems | 0.4% | 984 | 1037.4 | 0.95× |
| Glock-18 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 25.0% | $0.23 0.36 gems | 0.4% | 1,291 | 1296.8 | 1.00× |
| XM1014 | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 27.5% | $0.14 0.22 gems | 0.3% | 1,483 | 1426.4 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $16.85 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrare 2.0%mil spec 58.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.0%blue 10.0%Rare 25.0%best hit —