Six Figures?
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$8,893.70
13,683 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $8,004.25 from 6 items
Observed RTP, 30d
0.08%
18 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 18 openings and 1.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 18 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | Dragon Lore (Minimal Wear)weapon · legendary | 10.0% | $80K 123,020 gems | 99.9% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $20.85 32.07 gems | 0.0% | 1 | 2.7 | 0.37× |
| Patch | The Bosspatch · exotic | 15.0% | $20.14 30.99 gems | 0.0% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.11× |
| M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified | 20.0% | $6.14 9.44 gems | 0.0% | 5 | 3.6 | 1.39× |
| M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $2.96 4.56 gems | 0.0% | 3 | 3.6 | 0.83× |
| Sticker | Dirty Moneysticker · High Grade | 20.0% | $0.29 0.44 gems | 0.0% | 6 | 3.6 | 1.67× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $8,894 | 90.00% | 6 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedlegendary 10.0%covert 15.0%exotic 15.0%classified 20.0%restricted 20.0%High Grade 20.0%best hit —