Six Six One
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$54.84
84.37 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $49.35 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
40.88%
868 openings, odds method
Variance
508.1×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 2,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 868 openings and 0.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 988 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 2,000 | $55.3K 85,000 gems | 56.0% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| ★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knife | 1 in 222 | $634 975 gems | 5.8% | 7 | 4.4 | 1.57× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · gold | 1 in 200 | $484 744 gems | 4.9% | 4 | 4.9 | 0.81× |
| ★ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 100 | $260 399 gems | 5.3% | 9 | 9.9 | 0.91× |
| ★ Gut Knife | Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 33 | $96.59 149 gems | 5.9% | 28 | 29.6 | 0.94× |
| ★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $83.97 129 gems | 5.1% | 37 | 29.6 | 1.25× |
| Five-SeveN | Case Hardened (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 40.0% | $11.02 16.95 gems | 8.9% | 401 | 395.2 | 1.01× |
| Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted | 52.0% | $7.76 11.94 gems | 8.2% | 502 | 513.8 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Talon Knife | Case Hardened (Factory New)knife · covert knifeHydrarewards.com$54.8484.37 gems$634975 gems11.56x
Latest dropsnewest first
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$54.8484.37 gems$7.7611.94 gems0.14x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$54.8484.37 gems$7.7611.94 gems0.14x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$54.8484.37 gems$7.7611.94 gems0.14x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$54.8484.37 gems$7.7611.94 gems0.14x
Souvenir MAC-10 | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · restricted$54.8484.37 gems$7.7611.94 gems0.14x
★ Hydra Gloves | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary$54.8484.37 gems$83.97129 gems1.53x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $54.84 | 89.99% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 0.1%covert knife 0.4%gold 0.5%covert 4.0%extraordinary 3.0%restricted 92.0%best hit $634 (11.56x)