64
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$2.92
4.49 gems
Advertised RTP
89.88%
EV $2.62 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
88.27%
11.7K openings, odds method
Variance
20.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 67
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
85.5%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 11.8K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 200 | $162 249 gems | 30.8% | 57 | 59.0 | 0.97× |
| Souvenir PP-Bizon | Brass (Factory New)Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 1 in 100 | $64.99 99.99 gems | 24.8% | 120 | 118.0 | 1.02× |
| PP-Bizon | Rust Coat (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 33 | $17.20 26.46 gems | 19.7% | 351 | 353.8 | 0.99× |
| PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $6.01 9.25 gems | 11.5% | 574 | 589.8 | 0.97× |
| PP-Bizon | Seabird (Field-Tested)weapon · consumer | 1 in 20 | $3.16 4.86 gems | 6.0% | 564 | 589.8 | 0.96× |
| PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 18 | $2.81 4.32 gems | 5.9% | 627 | 648.7 | 0.97× |
| PP-Bizon | Cold Cell (Field-Tested)weapon · #5e98d9 | 20.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.5% | 2,425 | 2359.0 | 1.03× |
| PP-Bizon | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 20.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 0.4% | 2,305 | 2359.0 | 0.98× |
| PP-Bizon | Night Riot (Well-Worn)weapon · 1 | 40.0% | $0.03 0.04 gems | 0.4% | 4,772 | 4718.0 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · mil specBoogy95 #clashgg$2.924.49 gems$162249 gems55.46x
PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · mil speckoverstreetii$2.924.49 gems$162249 gems55.46x
PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · mil speckoverstreetii$2.924.49 gems$162249 gems55.46x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.88%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $2.92 | 89.88% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed1 40.0%mil spec 3.5%Mil Spec Grade 1.0%restricted 5.0%consumer 5.0%covert 5.5%#5e98d9 20.0%industrial 20.0%best hit $162 (55.46x)