Skeletons
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$7.21
11.09 gems
Advertised RTP
89.96%
EV $6.48 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.08%
9,447 openings, odds method
Variance
54.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 100
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
99.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.96% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (90.16% – 120.00%, 9,447 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,501 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Crown (Foil)sticker · exotic | 1 in 100 | $537 826 gems | 82.8% | 115 | 95.0 | 1.21× |
| UMP-45 | Bone Pile (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff | 24.0% | $2.24 3.44 gems | 8.3% | 2,188 | 2280.2 | 0.96× |
| P250 | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 25.0% | $2.12 3.26 gems | 8.2% | 2,379 | 2375.2 | 1.00× |
| R8 Revolver | Bone Forged (Factory New)weapon · blue | 25.0% | $0.12 0.19 gems | 0.5% | 2,434 | 2375.2 | 1.02× |
| R8 Revolver | Bone Mask (Factory New)weapon · #B0C3D9 | 25.0% | $0.07 0.11 gems | 0.3% | 2,385 | 2375.3 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.96%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $7.21 | 89.96% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedexotic 1.0%#4b69ff 24.0%consumer 25.0%blue 25.0%#B0C3D9 25.0%best hit $537 (74.49x)