Skill Issue

A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.

Price

$11.70

18 gems

Advertised RTP

89.95%

EV $10.52 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.05%

10.3K openings, odds method

Variance

803.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 2,000

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

99.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

1,887 openings · below min

7 days

9,128 openings · below min

30 days

89.05%±54.6710.3K openings

since tracking started

89.05%±54.6710.3K openings

-0.5%113.5%227.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,887	99.09%±127.9	—	odds
7d	9,128	92.82%±58.2	—	odds
30d	10.3K	89.05%±54.7	−0.0σ	odds
All	10.3K	89.05%±54.7	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Souvenir AWP \| Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$25.6K 39,441 gems	24.4%	1	1.0	0.96×
Sticker \| Vox Eminor (Holo) \| Katowice 2014sticker · legendary	1 in 10,000	$16.3K 25,000 gems	15.4%	1	1.0	0.96×
AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Factory New)weapon · legendary	1 in 10,000	$10.2K 15,622 gems	9.6%	1	1.0	0.96×
★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$4,940 7,600 gems	9.4%	3	2.1	1.44×
★ Karambit \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 2,500	$1,804 2,775 gems	6.9%	3	4.2	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 2,000	$796 1,225 gems	3.8%	2	5.2	0.38×
AWP \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 714	$624 960 gems	8.3%	17	14.6	1.17×
AK-47 \| Jaguar (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 667	$452 695 gems	6.4%	14	15.6	0.90×
Sticker \| Virtus.Pro \| Katowice 2014sticker · violet	1 in 588	$355 546 gems	5.7%	18	17.7	1.02×
★ Sport Gloves \| Creme Pinstripe (Minimal Wear)gloves · epic	1 in 500	$213 327 gems	4.0%	20	20.8	0.96×
★ Ursus Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · rare	1 in 500	$104 160 gems	2.0%	17	20.8	0.82×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	99.0%	$0.43 0.66 gems	4.0%	10,322	10314.8	1.00×

Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.