Sky Scraper
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.47
5.34 gems
Advertised RTP
89.90%
EV $3.12 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.06%
3,284 openings, odds method
Variance
1.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
10.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
65.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,300 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 20 | $17.84 27.45 gems | 28.6% | 192 | 165.0 | 1.16× |
| AWP | Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $14.19 21.83 gems | 22.7% | 151 | 165.0 | 0.92× |
| M4A1-S | Leaded Glass (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $5.43 8.35 gems | 8.7% | 190 | 165.0 | 1.15× |
| FAMAS | Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · Legendary | 10.0% | $3.82 5.88 gems | 12.2% | 307 | 330.0 | 0.93× |
| G3SG1 | Contractor (Factory New)weapon · Consumer Grade | 10.0% | $3.62 5.57 gems | 11.6% | 334 | 330.0 | 1.01× |
| UMP-45 | Scaffold (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $1.22 1.88 gems | 7.8% | 675 | 660.0 | 1.02× |
| SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Factory New)weapon · milspec | 20.0% | $1.07 1.64 gems | 6.8% | 658 | 660.0 | 1.00× |
| Nova | Windblown (Factory New)weapon · Rare | 25.0% | $0.18 0.28 gems | 1.5% | 793 | 825.0 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.90%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.47 | 89.90% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedmil spec 5.0%classified 10.0%Legendary 10.0%Consumer Grade 10.0%restricted 20.0%milspec 20.0%Rare 25.0%best hit —