Sleigh Ride
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$610.94
940 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $549.83 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
69.90%
42 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
25.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 42 openings and 10.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 42 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $2,303 3,543 gems | 41.9% | 1 | 4.2 | 0.24× |
| AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $1,053 1,619 gems | 28.7% | 7 | 6.3 | 1.11× |
| ★ Karambit | Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · covert | 15.0% | $806 1,239 gems | 22.0% | 8 | 6.3 | 1.27× |
| UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $385 592 gems | 3.5% | 3 | 2.1 | 1.43× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $261 401 gems | 2.4% | 1 | 2.1 | 0.48× |
| Galil AR | Chatterbox (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $42.04 64.68 gems | 0.8% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.19× |
| MAC-10 | Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $15.31 23.55 gems | 0.3% | 6 | 4.2 | 1.43× |
| FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New)weapon · covert | 10.0% | $9.87 15.19 gems | 0.2% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.71× |
| UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink | 20.0% | $8.96 13.78 gems | 0.3% | 8 | 8.4 | 0.95× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $611 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 70.0%classified 5.0%extraordinary 5.0%pink 20.0%best hit $2,303 (3.77x)