Sleigh the Competition
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$97.12
149 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $87.40 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.09%
127 openings, odds method
Variance
1.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
23.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
63.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 127 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · covert | 10.0% | $327 502 gems | 37.4% | 14 | 12.7 | 1.10× |
| Desert Eagle | Fennec Fox (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 13.0% | $163 251 gems | 24.2% | 17 | 16.5 | 1.03× |
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Field-Tested)weapon · classified | 14.0% | $111 170 gems | 17.7% | 18 | 17.8 | 1.01× |
| ★ Survival Knife | Boreal Forest (Minimal Wear)knife · #ffd700 | 15.0% | $65.07 100 gems | 11.2% | 20 | 19.1 | 1.05× |
| USP-S | Caiman (Factory New)weapon · classified | 16.0% | $32.77 50.42 gems | 6.0% | 12 | 20.3 | 0.59× |
| USP-S | Monster Mashup (Factory New)weapon · classified | 16.0% | $15.98 24.59 gems | 2.9% | 24 | 20.3 | 1.18× |
| FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 16.0% | $3.28 5.05 gems | 0.6% | 22 | 20.3 | 1.08× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $97.12 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 10.0%classified 59.0%#ffd700 15.0%restricted 16.0%best hit —