Attack
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$35.60
54.77 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $32.04 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.98%
868 openings, odds method
Variance
6.4×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 17
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
75.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 892 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 100 | $640 985 gems | 20.0% | 12 | 8.9 | 1.35× |
| ★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 50 | $423 650 gems | 26.4% | 13 | 17.8 | 0.73× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Cool Mint (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $152 233 gems | 14.2% | 31 | 26.8 | 1.16× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Polygon (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 25 | $112 173 gems | 14.0% | 30 | 35.7 | 0.84× |
| FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $43.08 66.28 gems | 6.7% | 57 | 44.6 | 1.28× |
| FAMAS | Prime Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · violet | 10.0% | $37.06 57.01 gems | 11.6% | 78 | 89.2 | 0.87× |
| M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink | 15.0% | $6.80 10.46 gems | 3.2% | 133 | 133.8 | 0.99× |
| AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6 | 20.0% | $4.05 6.23 gems | 2.5% | 182 | 178.4 | 1.02× |
| MP7 | Asterion (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $1.49 2.29 gems | 0.9% | 181 | 178.4 | 1.01× |
| UMP-45 | Exposure (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $0.78 1.2 gems | 0.5% | 175 | 178.4 | 0.98× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunnycode kujtaa 200$gw+200$lb$35.6054.77 gems$640985 gems17.98x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $35.60 | 90.00% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedsunny 3.0%extraordinary 7.0%classified 5.0%violet 10.0%pink 15.0%#d32ee6 20.0%consumer 20.0%restricted 20.0%best hit $640 (17.98x)