Small Fish
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$0.96
1.47 gems
Advertised RTP
89.87%
EV $0.86 from 5 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.61%
24.8K openings, odds method
Variance
5.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
55.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values5 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 25.3K openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Shadow Daggers | Bright Water (Well-Worn)knife · covert | 1 in 500 | $44.63 68.66 gems | 10.4% | 50 | 50.6 | 0.99× |
| Tec-9 | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified | 1 in 21 | $4.93 7.59 gems | 27.6% | 1,212 | 1214.9 | 1.00× |
| Glock-18 | Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6 | 15.0% | $1.54 2.37 gems | 26.9% | 3,752 | 3796.5 | 0.99× |
| Galil AR | Blue Titanium (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 25.0% | $1.09 1.68 gems | 31.8% | 6,332 | 6327.4 | 1.00× |
| Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff | 55.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 3.3% | 13,964 | 13920.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.87%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $0.96 | 89.87% | 5 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 0.2%classified 4.8%#d32ee6 15.0%mil spec 25.0%#4b69ff 55.0%best hit —