SMG Abuser
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$62.80
96.62 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $56.52 from 11 items
Observed RTP, 30d
84.85%
794 openings, odds method
Variance
7.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 14
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
80.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 794 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP9 | Wild Lily (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 100 | $1,489 2,290 gems | 26.3% | 9 | 7.9 | 1.13× |
| MP9 | Bulldozer (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $435 670 gems | 23.1% | 16 | 23.8 | 0.67× |
| UMP-45 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 33 | $239 368 gems | 12.7% | 22 | 23.8 | 0.92× |
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 33 | $192 296 gems | 10.2% | 20 | 23.8 | 0.84× |
| MAC-10 | Hot Snakes (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $134 207 gems | 11.9% | 43 | 39.7 | 1.08× |
| MP7 | Teal Blossom (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 1 in 20 | $68.45 105 gems | 6.1% | 40 | 39.7 | 1.01× |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $32.56 50.09 gems | 2.9% | 36 | 39.7 | 0.91× |
| MP7 | Skulls (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue | 15.0% | $13.91 21.4 gems | 3.7% | 126 | 119.1 | 1.06× |
| MAC-10 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $6.12 9.41 gems | 2.2% | 156 | 158.8 | 0.98× |
| PP-Bizon | Bamboo Print (Minimal Wear)weapon · #B0C3D9 | 20.0% | $2.04 3.14 gems | 0.7% | 161 | 158.8 | 1.01× |
| MAC-10 | Allure (Factory New)weapon · Mythical | 20.0% | $0.73 1.12 gems | 0.3% | 165 | 158.8 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $62.80 | 89.99% | 11 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 14.0%restricted 6.0%#4b69ff 5.0%blue 15.0%covert 20.0%#B0C3D9 20.0%Mythical 20.0%best hit $1,489 (23.70x)