Smoked
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$20.48
31.5 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $18.42 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
101.27%
2,443 openings, odds method
Variance
16.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
95.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,473 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MP7 | Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary | 1 in 50 | $490 753 gems | 53.1% | 61 | 49.5 | 1.23× |
| ★ Moto Gloves | Smoke Out (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $273 420 gems | 44.5% | 74 | 74.2 | 1.00× |
| Sticker | Smoke Criminalsticker · blue | 10.0% | $1.68 2.58 gems | 0.9% | 244 | 247.3 | 0.99× |
| MP7 | Gunsmoke (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $1.49 2.3 gems | 0.8% | 263 | 247.3 | 1.06× |
| Sticker | Lost In Smoke (Foil)sticker · Exotic | 10.0% | $0.73 1.12 gems | 0.4% | 236 | 247.3 | 0.95× |
| Sticker | Pushing Smokes (Glitter)sticker · Mythical | 10.0% | $0.30 0.46 gems | 0.2% | 237 | 247.3 | 0.96× |
| Galil AR | Grey Smoke (Factory New)weapon · #b0c3d9 | 15.0% | $0.05 0.08 gems | 0.0% | 364 | 370.9 | 0.98× |
| SSG 08 | Grey Smoke (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 20.0% | $0.05 0.07 gems | 0.0% | 501 | 494.6 | 1.01× |
| Sticker | Bum A Smokesticker · High Grade | 20.0% | $0.01 0.02 gems | 0.0% | 493 | 494.6 | 1.00× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $20.48 | 89.98% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedLegendary 2.0%extraordinary 3.0%blue 10.0%industrial 10.0%Exotic 10.0%Mythical 10.0%#b0c3d9 15.0%consumer 20.0%High Grade 20.0%best hit —