Smugglers Loadout
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$13.13
20.2 gems
Advertised RTP
89.98%
EV $11.81 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
95.57%
737 openings, odds method
Variance
0.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
60.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 764 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| StatTrak™ P250 | Cartel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified | 10.0% | $33.80 52 gems | 28.6% | 87 | 76.4 | 1.14× |
| M4A4 | Desert Storm (Factory New)weapon · industrial | 10.0% | $26.53 40.81 gems | 22.5% | 87 | 76.4 | 1.14× |
| StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $24.05 37 gems | 20.4% | 79 | 76.4 | 1.03× |
| StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted | 10.0% | $17.44 26.83 gems | 14.8% | 70 | 76.4 | 0.92× |
| StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted | 15.0% | $6.83 10.51 gems | 8.7% | 105 | 114.6 | 0.92× |
| StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade | 15.0% | $2.42 3.73 gems | 3.1% | 122 | 114.6 | 1.06× |
| SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · consumer | 15.0% | $1.11 1.7 gems | 1.4% | 111 | 114.6 | 0.97× |
| M249 | Warbird (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $0.53 0.81 gems | 0.7% | 103 | 114.6 | 0.90× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 17:55 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Heirloom (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$13.1320.2 gems$24.0537 gems1.83x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$13.1320.2 gems$17.4426.83 gems1.33x
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$13.1320.2 gems$6.8310.51 gems0.52x
SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Factory New)weapon · consumerLouisInRussian$13.1320.2 gems$1.111.7 gems0.08x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Winterized (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade$13.1320.2 gems$2.423.73 gems0.18x
StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Basilisk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted$13.1320.2 gems$17.4426.83 gems1.33x
StatTrak™ MP5-SD | Agent (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted$13.1320.2 gems$6.8310.51 gems0.52x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.98%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $13.13 | 89.98% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedclassified 10.0%industrial 10.0%restricted 20.0%Restricted 15.0%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%consumer 15.0%mil spec 15.0%best hit —