Snakebite Case
A case on Clash.gg (cs2), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3.00
4.62 gems
Advertised RTP
89.91%
EV $2.70 from 41 items
Observed RTP, 30d
85.09%
7,686 openings, odds method
Variance
317.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 1,000
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
92.7%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values41 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,713 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$3.004.62 gems$1,4132,174 gems470.6x
★ Specialist Gloves | Tiger Strike (Factory New)gloves · extraordinaryYoda!$3.004.62 gems$1,4132,174 gems470.6x
★ Sport Gloves | Scarlet Shamagh (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$3.004.62 gems$1,0041,544 gems334.2x
★ Specialist Gloves | Field Agent (Factory New)gloves · extraordinary$3.004.62 gems$8091,245 gems269.5x
Latest dropsnewest first
CZ75-Auto | Circaetus (Factory New)weapon · milspecBoogy95 #clashgg$3.004.62 gems$0.250.38 gems0.08x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.91%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $3.00 | 89.91% | 41 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.2%legendary 0.1%Extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.3%covert 0.3%restricted 6.4%classified 3.2%#8847ff 6.4%violet 3.2%milspec 22.8%Rare 45.7%blue 11.4%best hit $3,650 (1,215x)