Snowbound Gift
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$32.32
49.72 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $29.08 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.26%
881 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
58.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 905 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red | 1 in 20 | $163 250 gems | 27.9% | 46 | 45.3 | 1.02× |
| MP9 | Pandora's Box (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $68.39 105 gems | 23.5% | 109 | 90.5 | 1.20× |
| AWP | Redline (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $46.60 71.69 gems | 19.2% | 104 | 108.6 | 0.96× |
| USP-S | The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient | 15.0% | $32.63 50.2 gems | 16.8% | 139 | 135.8 | 1.02× |
| P250 | Bengal Tiger (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff | 15.0% | $16.48 25.36 gems | 8.5% | 135 | 135.8 | 0.99× |
| MP9 | Setting Sun (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 15.0% | $3.76 5.78 gems | 1.9% | 129 | 135.8 | 0.95× |
| P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified | 28.0% | $2.13 3.28 gems | 2.1% | 243 | 253.4 | 0.96× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $32.32 | 89.99% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedred 5.0%mil spec 25.0%classified 40.0%Ancient 15.0%#4b69ff 15.0%best hit —