So Lit
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$31.36
48.24 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $28.22 from 9 items
Observed RTP, 30d
80.59%
4,150 openings, odds method
Variance
77.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 167
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
91.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values9 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,195 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable | 1 in 1,000 | $7,115 10,946 gems | 25.2% | 3 | 4.2 | 0.72× |
| Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary | 1 in 500 | $3,179 4,890 gems | 22.5% | 5 | 8.4 | 0.60× |
| Sticker | suNny (Gold) | Krakow 2017sticker · Extraordinary | 1 in 333 | $1,170 1,800 gems | 12.4% | 12 | 12.6 | 0.95× |
| ★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 250 | $511 786 gems | 7.2% | 28 | 16.8 | 1.67× |
| ★ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New)knife · sunny | 1 in 100 | $254 391 gems | 9.0% | 53 | 42.0 | 1.26× |
| Five-SeveN | Neon Kimono (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 50 | $169 260 gems | 12.0% | 81 | 83.9 | 0.97× |
| M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted | 1 in 20 | $46.74 71.91 gems | 8.3% | 187 | 209.8 | 0.89× |
| AUG | Anodized Navy (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 17 | $12.90 19.85 gems | 2.7% | 242 | 251.7 | 0.96× |
| Sticker | Lit (Holo)sticker · Mythical | 85.0% | $0.19 0.29 gems | 0.6% | 3,584 | 3565.8 | 1.01× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$31.3648.24 gems$7,11510,946 gems226.9x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$31.3648.24 gems$7,11510,946 gems226.9x
Sticker | Natus Vincere (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · remarkable$31.3648.24 gems$7,11510,946 gems226.9x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendaryconq$31.3648.24 gems$3,1794,890 gems101.4x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$31.3648.24 gems$3,1794,890 gems101.4x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendarySenor Bazsix$31.3648.24 gems$3,1794,890 gems101.4x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$31.3648.24 gems$3,1794,890 gems101.4x
Sticker | Virtus.Pro (Holo) | Katowice 2014sticker · legendary$31.3648.24 gems$3,1794,890 gems101.4x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $31.36 | 90.00% | 9 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedremarkable 0.1%legendary 0.2%Extraordinary 0.3%covert 0.4%sunny 1.0%restricted 7.0%mil spec 6.0%Mythical 85.0%best hit $7,115 (226.9x)