Sparkling
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$3,339.77
5,138 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $3,005.79 from 8 items
Observed RTP, 30d
157.52%
48 openings, odds method
Variance
10.6×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 25
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Small sample. 48 openings and 1.9 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values8 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 48 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon | 1 in 25 | $55.3K 85,000 gems | 73.5% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.08× |
| ★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby | 1 in 17 | $9,455 14,546 gems | 18.9% | 2 | 2.9 | 0.69× |
| Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 13 | $875 1,347 gems | 2.3% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.04× |
| M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified | 10.0% | $551 847 gems | 1.8% | 6 | 4.8 | 1.25× |
| M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified | 12.0% | $347 534 gems | 1.4% | 8 | 5.8 | 1.39× |
| M4A1-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 12.0% | $262 403 gems | 1.0% | 8 | 5.8 | 1.39× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red | 18.0% | $72.83 112 gems | 0.4% | 1 | 8.6 | 0.12× |
| Desert Eagle | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert | 30.0% | $57.19 87.99 gems | 0.6% | 15 | 14.4 | 1.04× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weaponjurassicpeek$3,3405,138 gems$55.3K85,000 gems16.54x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$3,3405,138 gems$55.3K85,000 gems16.54x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$3,3405,138 gems$55.3K85,000 gems16.54x
AK-47 | Case Hardened (Factory New) (Blue Gem) (Factory New)weapon$3,3405,138 gems$55.3K85,000 gems16.54x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyRodarius Marcell Green Jr II$3,3405,138 gems$9,45514,546 gems2.83x
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · Ruby$3,3405,138 gems$9,45514,546 gems2.83x
Latest dropsnewest first
★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby)knife · covert · RubyRodarius Marcell Green Jr II$3,3405,138 gems$9,45514,546 gems2.83x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $3,340 | 90.00% | 8 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedother 4.0%covert 48.0%restricted 8.0%classified 22.0%red 18.0%best hit $55.3K (16.54x)