Spartan
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$76.59
118 gems
Advertised RTP
90.00%
EV $68.93 from 7 items
Observed RTP, 30d
82.18%
1,279 openings, odds method
Variance
13.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 50
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
90.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values7 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,301 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 50 | $1,967 3,025 gems | 57.1% | 24 | 26.0 | 0.92× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 33 | $415 638 gems | 18.0% | 33 | 39.0 | 0.85× |
| ★ Driver Gloves | Queen Jaguar (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 20 | $140 215 gems | 10.1% | 56 | 65.0 | 0.86× |
| AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $73.73 113 gems | 5.3% | 74 | 65.0 | 1.14× |
| M4A1-S | Guardian (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $22.81 35.09 gems | 5.0% | 216 | 195.1 | 1.11× |
| M4A4 | 龍王 (Dragon King) (Factory New)weapon · classified | 15.0% | $19.91 30.63 gems | 4.3% | 191 | 195.1 | 0.98× |
| Sticker | The Spartansticker · high | 55.0% | $0.13 0.2 gems | 0.1% | 707 | 715.6 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New)knife · covertCODE:666 750LB 300GW$76.59118 gems$1,9673,025 gems25.68x
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 90.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $76.59 | 90.00% | 7 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 7.0%extraordinary 8.0%classified 30.0%high 55.0%best hit $1,967 (25.68x)