Specter’s Touch
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$46.83
72.05 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $42.14 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
105.76%
797 openings, odds method
Variance
16.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
1 in 37
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
87.8%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 827 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ★ Sport Gloves | Pandora's Box (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary | 1 in 2,000 | $4,589 7,060 gems | 5.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| AWP | The Prince (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 1,000 | $3,003 4,620 gems | 7.1% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| ★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert | 1 in 333 | $1,775 2,731 gems | 12.6% | 6 | 2.5 | 2.42× |
| ★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New)knife · legendary | 1 in 222 | $832 1,280 gems | 8.9% | 3 | 3.7 | 0.81× |
| ★ Karambit | Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Covert | 1 in 56 | $465 715 gems | 19.9% | 12 | 14.9 | 0.81× |
| AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 29 | $209 321 gems | 17.4% | 31 | 28.9 | 1.07× |
| M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert | 1 in 17 | $58.79 90.45 gems | 8.4% | 50 | 49.6 | 1.01× |
| USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 1 in 13 | $44.56 68.55 gems | 8.2% | 67 | 64.5 | 1.04× |
| USP-S | Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert | 20.0% | $19.64 30.21 gems | 9.3% | 167 | 165.4 | 1.01× |
| M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff | 60.0% | $1.94 2.98 gems | 2.8% | 489 | 496.2 | 0.99× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertleaxx93$46.8372.05 gems$1,7752,731 gems37.90x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertGhastly$46.8372.05 gems$1,7752,731 gems37.90x
★ Butterfly Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covertSxm$46.8372.05 gems$1,7752,731 gems37.90x
Latest dropsnewest first
M4A1-S | Chantico's Fire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertFarelEnergy skinbet.gg$46.8372.05 gems$58.7990.45 gems1.26x
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 01:59 UTC | $46.83 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 37.7%legendary 0.4%Covert 1.8%#8847ff 60.0%best hit $3,003 (64.12x)