Speed Case
A case on Clash.gg (classic), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Clash.gg's own item price converted from Clash gems at the rate on the site page.
Price
$11.32
17.41 gems
Advertised RTP
89.99%
EV $10.18 from 10 items
Observed RTP, 30d
90.29%
620 openings, odds method
Variance
2.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values10 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 644 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P90 | Astral Jörmungandr (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 1 in 100 | $150 231 gems | 14.7% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.09× |
| PP-Bizon | Modern Hunter (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 1 in 100 | $101 156 gems | 10.0% | 7 | 6.4 | 1.09× |
| P90 | Cold Blooded (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 50 | $32.96 50.7 gems | 6.5% | 9 | 12.9 | 0.70× |
| P90 | Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert | 1 in 20 | $27.51 42.32 gems | 13.5% | 31 | 32.2 | 0.96× |
| Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified | 1 in 20 | $25.92 39.88 gems | 12.7% | 32 | 32.2 | 0.99× |
| P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 10.0% | $16.36 25.17 gems | 16.1% | 73 | 64.4 | 1.13× |
| P90 | Death Grip (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 20.0% | $5.58 8.59 gems | 11.0% | 110 | 128.8 | 0.85× |
| Tec-9 | Isaac (Factory New)weapon · mil spec | 20.0% | $4.76 7.33 gems | 9.4% | 135 | 128.8 | 1.05× |
| PP-Bizon | Judgement of Anubis (Factory New)weapon · covert | 15.0% | $3.09 4.75 gems | 4.5% | 101 | 96.6 | 1.05× |
| Tec-9 | Re-Entry (Factory New)weapon · restricted | 21.0% | $0.80 1.23 gems | 1.6% | 139 | 135.2 | 1.03× |
Values are Clash.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
clash:api/cases/details, 11 Nov, 11:26 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.99%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 Nov, 02:04 UTC | $11.32 | 89.99% | 10 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 42.0%mil spec 31.0%classified 7.0%covert 20.0%best hit —